Macroeconomic Forum Q1/2025: Economic and Foreign Policy Directions for 2025 – Opportunities and Challenges for Petrovietnam

Petrovietnam implements key provisions of the 2022 Petroleum Law

Invitation to bid

The forum gathered members of the Members’ Council, department leaders, and representatives from Petrovietnam’s offices. Guest speakers included Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, President of the Institute for Strategic Branding and Competition Research; Mr. Pham Quang Vinh, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs; and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long, former Director of the Institute for Price Research under the Ministry of Finance.

Overview of the working session

Opening the forum, CEO Le Ngoc Son emphasized the strategic significance of these macroeconomic discussions. He noted that these regular forums serve as a critical platform for Petrovietnam’s leadership and technical teams to analyze global and domestic economic trends and fine-tune business strategies accordingly.

For 2025, Petrovietnam has set an ambitious double-digit growth target, aligning with Vietnam’s broader economic development objectives. The Group is particularly focused on boosting investment growth by 15%. With Petrovietnam’s revenue exceeding VND 1 quadrillion (approximately USD 40 billion), achieving this ambitious target will be particularly challenging amid global economic uncertainties. However, Petrovietnam remains committed to effectively managing market fluctuations, implementing concrete and efficient solutions to sustain stable and sustainable business operations.

The Group’s leadership expressed their hope that experts would provide assessments, share insights, and offer recommendations to help Petrovietnam adjust its plans appropriately while effectively managing risks in the current challenging and unpredictable market environment.

At the forum, experts and guest speakers explored key topics, including:

- "Economic, Foreign, Trade, and Financial Policies for 2025: Risks and Opportunities"

- "Trump 2.0 Administration: Key Policy Uncertainties and Their Impacts"

- "Nuclear Power: Economic Viability, Policy Considerations, and Feasibility in Vietnam"

These discussions provided crucial insights for Petrovietnam's strategic planning and operations.

Võ Trí Thành provides information about the global and Vietnamese economic situation.

At the forum, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh highlighted that the global economic landscape in 2025 is expected to remain adaptive and resilient, but regional disparities in growth could pose challenges. While inflation is projected to decline, policy uncertainties—particularly Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency—could influence global economic stability.He noted that potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) could lead to capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations, posing both risks and opportunities for Vietnam’s economy. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts rising global public debt, but Vietnam is well-positioned with a public debt ratio of 30-37%, demonstrating strong debt repayment capacity.

After assuming office, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to continue implementing policies aimed at protecting the U.S. economy and maintaining the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Additionally, his skepticism toward multilateral organizations, as demonstrated by the potential withdrawal from certain institutions, could disrupt the global economic order. Trade tensions—particularly between the U.S. and China, as well as between the U.S. and Canada—are expected to remain complex, necessitating skillful diplomatic negotiations from all involved parties. For Vietnam, while the U.S.-China trade war may present certain advantages, it also poses significant risks, particularly as the conflict extends to corporate levels and global supply chains.

Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pham Quang Vinh Speaks at the Forum

Echoing Dr. Vo Tri Thanh’s perspectives, Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pham Quang Vinh emphasized that President Donald Trump’s "America First" policy is anticipated to remain a central pillar of U.S. foreign policy, with the overarching goal of restoring the country's economic and political dominance. This approach could lead to a recalibration of relations with both allies and adversaries, including demands for increased burden-sharing from allies and the strategic use of political, economic, and financial leverage.

A notable focus of Trump's policies is energy security, with ambitions to position the U.S. as an independent energy superpower while simultaneously lowering domestic living costs. Consequently, these policies may encompass the expansion of oil and gas extraction, enhanced control over energy markets, and securing access to critical rare-earth materials.

Vietnam should proactively develop trade policies that align with U.S. regulations and standards, as this will serve as a key measure to navigate potential shifts in U.S. trade policy under a "Trump 2.0" administration. Furthermore, closely monitoring U.S. energy and trade strategies will be crucial for Vietnam to adapt promptly and mitigate potential risks.

Associate Professor Dr. Ngo Tri Long Discusses Challenges in Nuclear Power Development

Meanwhile, economic expert Associate Professor Dr. Ngo Tri Long highlighted that the development of a nuclear power plant represents a significant national undertaking, requiring meticulous planning and careful risk assessments. A successful implementation would not only solidify the position of participating enterprises but also contribute to national energy security.

Given the Prime Minister’s decision to assign Petrovietnam the responsibility of developing a nuclear power project, the Group must carefully consider several key factors to ensure its success.

From a financial standpoint, it is imperative to determine the total investment requirements and secure reliable funding sources to maintain a stable cash flow throughout the project. Additionally, a thorough assessment of electricity production costs and the economic impact of nuclear energy pricing on both the national economy and consumers is essential.

From a legal and regulatory perspective, enterprises must strictly comply with both domestic and international legal frameworks, including Vietnam’s Atomic Energy Law and relevant international treaties. Ensuring that the project receives safety approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and completing all necessary licensing, as well as environmental and social impact assessments, are mandatory requirements.

Lastly, fostering international cooperation will be critical, particularly in terms of technology transfer and leveraging expertise from countries with established nuclear power infrastructure. Securing technical assistance and oversight from the IAEA will be a prerequisite to ensuring adherence to the highest global safety and operational standards.

In closing, Petrovietnam’s CEO Le Ngoc Son, on behalf of the Group’s leadership, expressed gratitude to the economic experts for their invaluable insights and in-depth analyses of global economic trends, particularly their essential forecasts for Petrovietnam’s strategic development. He also instructed specialized departments to consolidate, review, and integrate the key economic projections discussed at the forum into the Group’s strategic planning process to ensure effective implementation of its objectives.

PVN